When it comes to World Cups, there are always a few perennial favourites. These are typically Brazil, Italy, and Germany. And the reason’s quite simple really; Brazil has won the Cup five times, Italy four and Germany three. However, this year’s a little different as Spain 4/1, England 13/2, and Argentina 7/1 have cracked the top four when it comes to odds of winning the trophy, with Brazil 5/1 ranked second, Germany 12/1 is fifth, and Italy come in seventh with odds of 13/1 according to expekt.com

What might be puzzling to some fans and bettors is how most odds makers around the world have the reigning World Cup holders Italy ranked so low for South Africa, considering they’re also the second most successful team in tournament history after Brazil.

It could be because most experts see the Italian triumph over France in 2006 as a one-off win as they hadn’t lifted the Jules Rimet trophy in 24 years before that. However, Italian sides have proved over the years they are capable of winning any time if they get on a roll.

But on the other side of the fence, Italy has struggled somewhat since 2006, most noticeably at the 2008 Euro Cup in Austria and Switzerland, where they lost their opener 3-0 to Holland before earning a 1-1 draw against Romania. They did revive themselves in time to beat France 2-0 in the third group game. But eventual Euro winners Spain sent them packing with a 4-2 penalty shootout win. This didn’t look good on the World Cup holders and manager Roberto Donadoni was soon sacked and replaced by Marcello Lippi, who had guided Italy to their World Cup win in 2006.

Italy was once again in poor form the following year as they were knocked out of the 2009 Confederations Cup in South Africa during the group stage after losses to Egypt and Brazil. They got stronger after that embarrassment though, and sailed through their World Cup qualifying campaign by going undefeated with seven wins and three draws, and only gave up seven goals in their 10 matches.

They also received a favourable draw for this World Cup as they share Group F with New Zealand, Slovakia, and Paraguay, who aren’t exactly world beaters. In fact, Paraguay is the only one of these three teams ranked in the top 16 when it comes to the odds as they sit at 80/1 on expekt.com. Slovakia is 100/1 and New Zealand brings up the rear at 3000/1.

Italy would have to suffer a complete collapse to not make it out of the group and if they make it as predicted, they’ll take on either the winner or second-place team from Group E, which consists of Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, and Cameroon.

The Italians will be led by 36-year-old captain Fabio Cannavaro, a former FIFA World Player of the Year, and the most capped player in Italian history. His leadership qualities could take Italy a long way, especially considering their group, which also means the team’s betting value is actually better than the odds would have you believe. They could be worth putting a wager on to equal Brazil’s record of five World Cups this summer.

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